NAPOVEDOVANJE PADAVIN Z MODELOAM ALADIN-SI IN MODELIRANJE POVRŠINSKEGA ODTOKA
FORECASTING OF INTENSE PRECIPITATION USING THE ALADIN-SI MODEL AND MODELlING OF THE RUN-OFF
Tomaž Vrhovec, Mark Žagar, Mitja Brilly, Mojca Šraj

Izvleček
V članku so predstavljeni temelji modeliranja meteoroloških polj v mezometeorološki skali (velikost pojavov od 10 do 100 km) in način modeliranja z večkratnim gnezdenjem, kakršen se uporablja v sistemu ARPEGE, ALADIN-LACE, ALADIN-SI. Opisane so nekatere lastnosti modela ALADIN in značilnosti modelskega prostora. Za primer intenzivnih padavin v zahodni Sloveniji (6.11.1997) so prikazani podatki meritev s klimatoloških postaj in rezultati modelskih izračunov akumulacije padavin. Analizirali smo možnost uporabe rezultatov izračuna padavin z modelom ALADIN-SI za napoved odtoka s pomočjo modela HEC-1.

Ključne besede: mezometeorološko modeliranje, ALADIN, padavine, odtok, HEC
Originalni znanstveni članek   UDK 519.87:556.12:556.16

Abstract
A mesometeorological modelling in a regional scale (the dimensions of the phenomena studied are from 10 to 100 km) with multiple nesting within the ARPEGE ALADIN models framework is introduced. Some characteristics of the ALADIN -SI model are described, and, for a selected case of intense precipitation, the operational outputs of the mesoscale meteorological ALADIN-SI model precipitation accumulation are evaluated with the use of operationally available data from the rain-gauge network. The mesoscale features of synoptic situations associated with the intense precipitation events are discussed. The possibility of using forecasted precipitation for predicting surface run-off with a hydrological model is discussed.

Key words: mesometeorological modelling, ALADIN, precipitation, run-off, HEC
Scientific paper   UDK 519.87:556.12:556.16

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